Sunday, February 28, 2016

Another. Easier. (Ooops--there's a cat amongst these owls)






74 comments:

listener said...

Found!

Okay, America, let's be smart!

WouldaCouldaShoulda been Dean.

Bernie may be our last great choice.
I dearly hope this nation figures out how to reward the good and throw out the bums!

listener said...

Fate thee well, Garrison Keillor!
Thank you for reminding us of the ordinary good parts of life, and for helping us all feel strong, good looking and above average. ;-)

Pat said...

Good Morning,

Darn, darn, darn! Why do people support politicians who will exploit them? How on earth is Hillary's governing going to be any different from what it was when Bill was President? Bernie is the only politician who offers a change from our capitalism-without-balance system. Why do people support politicians who will exploit them?

I have hope, but the system has so far deteriorated that I can't imagine Hillary would offer a corrective. The media, the corporations, the moneyed interests are opposed to any change and have done their best to dismiss Bernie. Will We the People have the courage, the clarity, the commitment, and energy to change this system?

I've been thinking about capitalism which promotes greed, dissatisfaction, inequalities, stress, focus on materialism, in fact, dominates our culture making us long for more and more, and nothing will ever be enough. It promotes competition over community, self-centeredness over empathy, extremism over equilibrium. The only way capitalism is viable and less destructive is when it is balanced with regulations, accountability, shared resources, and an ethos of ethics and community.

Well, we go on, but I've read that we are in fact The New Gilded Age, and that resulted in The Great Depression. When will we Americans wake up to how manipulative and dishonest the media and moneyed interests have been and are?

Have a day, friends.

Pat said...

I think I found the pussy cat. Third row up from the bottom, left to right two? Hmmm?!

listener said...

It's encouraging to see that the Vice Chair of the DNC has resigned to come out in support of Bernie Sanders for President! Sad, though that she had to to do so.

http://www.cbsnews.com/news/dnc-vice-chair-rep-tulsi-gabbard-resigns-endorses-bernie-sanders/

More details here:
http://www.salon.com/2016/02/28/dnc_vice_chair_resigns_endorses_sanders_blasts_clintons_interventionist_regime_change_policies/


puddle said...

Promised another phone fix today. Hopin' it takes.

Gorgeous warm sunshiny weather today and tomorrow.

Life's good.

Granddaughter accepted to all five of the schools she applied to. Now parents working the combo of " Now which is affordable? Financial packages, scholarships, and a visit to her Connecticut school are still to consider. " She wants to be a marine biologist, so that was limiting.

listener said...

Marine Biologist?! Wonderful! My niece is a great one, after schooling at UNH. [Is that on your grand's list?] Her middle name is Winslow after family that came over on the Mayflower, so she comes by it honestly!

She started the Blue Ocean Society:
http://www.blueoceansociety.org

listener said...

Well, tomorrow is the big day. I'll be working at the polls and counting the vote. Got invited to Bernie's party, but it's first-come, first-served and doors open at 4pm, so by the time the vote gets counted the place will already be packed.

puddle said...

Going to be a busy busy day: docs/blood AND grocery day. And as you can see going to be working on not much sleep.

Plus, under all that, gonna be holding ma breath. Blessings on all you bees out there, walking the walk!

xox

puddle said...

Will amend that to NO sleep, lol!

listener said...


MODERN PRODIGALS
by Maren Tirabassi

March 1, 2016

Luke 15: 12 a- 13 The younger of them said to his father,
“Father, give me the share of the property that will belong to me.
So he divided his property between them.
A few days later the younger son gathered all he had
and travelled to a distant country,
and there he squandered his property in dissolute living.


This is prodigal, too –
money spent on Pentagon budgets
instead of returning veterans,
the tax shelters for corporations
so they need not support
education budgets,

lobbyist payoffs for those who vote
to keep guns accessible
to the ones so ill they will shoot
the next grade school class,
movie theatre, place of worship,

the profligate use
of oil and coal and natural gas –
destroying the air and earth and oceans,
of children still unborn,
not to speak of God's creatures
extinct forever.

Before we congratulate ourselves
for the warm feelings
of generosity
to those who squander the future
in living so dissolute,
wantonly entitled,
careless of the wellbeing
of the young and the old ...

Remember.

We invite and reward prodigals
all the time
with robes of protection
from consequences,
rings of power, rich feasts.

Remember this before you criticize
the one who named it,
who did not want to join the party.

listener said...

What's the buzz out west on this?

Major carbon monoxide release on the west coast could presage large earthquake…?

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2016/2/29/1493107/--There-is-a-Major-Carbon-Monoxide-Explosion-on-the-West-Coast

puddle said...

Problem is, it was never going to be spent on those in need.

puddle said...

I may have graduated to "stable"--meaning if this blood work is good, they won't draw again for six months. . . .

listener said...

HALLO!!! I worked at the polls and didn't get home until 10pm because after all the voting, counting, packing up and cleaning, I kindly stayed and helped our Town Clerk schlep the stuff from the High School (polling location) back over to the Town Hall. After all, her day began at 5am and she was so busy all day that ten minutes after the polls closed she gasped: "I forgot to vote!" That poor woman!! She ought to have been given a special dispensation, but she stuck to the rules.

Bernie did even better than expected. Awesome!

In my little town:

2056 ballots taken

SANDERS 1223
CLINTON 205

KASICH 193
TRUMP 166
RUBIO 139
CRUZ 66

(There were a few votes also for O'Malley, Rocky, as well as the other R's.)


Have you noticed that the states that went for Bernie also seemed to not go for Trump? Interesting, no?

listener said...

***** A SPECIAL HIGH FIVE TO PAT! *****

Hurrah for Vermont and Colorado!!! :-D

Pat said...

High Five to you also, Listener. Yes, Colorado did it. We were packed, and Bernie supporters were 3 to 1. Tired now, but so glad. The people who spoke were passionate, convinced, and willing to go the distance.

Night friends.

puddle said...

And Minnesota and Oklahoma! And Massachusetts for being so close!

Now I can breathe.

And, yes, Pat, thanks to you and yours!

listener said...

puddle, I think i may know what you mean about being now able to breathe. Finally this campaign feels different. It doesn't feel like "deja vu all over again" anymore. Bernie has already done so much better than Howard was able to! And there is yet hope on the horizon. After all the early crowning, by press, party and Clintons alike, I'd sure like to see Bernie take the nomination. If he doesn't, I fear Trump will win. Egads!

Keep us posted on your bloodwork results! Hope, Hope, Hoping!!!! ♡

listener said...

Hey, maybe we should all choose ahead the town we like most in Cape Breton. If Trump gets elected, we may need a new place to live. If so, at least we could be neighbours! :-)

Pat said...

Hi Friends,

Last night was a record turnout in Colorado. At first reports were that the turnout was lower, but after the tabulation, 225,000 people had turned out to caucus. Some were turned away. In Boulder they planned on 15,000 people, and 25,000 showed up. Fire marshals made them conduct the caucus outside.A similar situation occurred in Fort Collins.

Tired today, and as usual the media(you said it, Listener)crowned Hillary. At least 400+ of her delegates are super delegates; in other words, the party insiders have made their choices. I still have hope. Wouldn't it be something if the people actually chose?

Another somewhat horrifying thought is this what happened in Germany and Italy when people chose demagogues, fear mongers, dictators out of emotion and no thinking or responsibility, not to mention humanity? I'm thinking of Trump who looks to be the nominee.

Well, we'll continue to support Bernie and hope that people get to know him and what he stands for.

Puddle, I hope your tests have come out well.

Take good care of yourselves.

puddle said...

Mz Shirlee, hoping yer okay? xox

puddle said...

Lord! We have a winter weather advisory going. Thought we might be done with this stuff. . . .

One of the good newses from the doc's visit was that I've managed, somehow, to lose two pounds in the past four months. Since the diabetes, and a metabolism that no longer works, that's monumental. So that's 2 of the 6 I gained during the 40 days of not smoking. I live my life like frozen molasses.

Pat said...

Hi Puddle,

It's progress. Congratulations and keep it up. Sometimes it feels like our bodies are separate entities, like a winter coat, like a car on a trolley, like branches of a tree. I think back to childhood when body and spirit were all of a piece. I guess this knowledge now of how our bodies behave is also part of the journey.

Gray, cool day here. I miss the bright spring light.

listener said...

I found myself *gasp!* agreeing with Mitt Romney today. He was suggesting that people vote for anyone but hewhosenamewedonotutter, or that the Convention simply block him. I was then humbled by Jane Sanders' response to his remarks:
""I think Mitt Romney achieved his goal, in terms of bringing up all the issues that concern a number of the people that listen to him. I listened to what John McCain had to say. On the other hand, that is the establishment telling the people not to support a candidate. So, that's a question. I mean, we're fighting that on the Democratic side. The establishment has been on our opponent's side for quite some time," said Jane Sanders."

listener said...

Today I heard the Cardinal's Spring song for the first time this season!


And I, too, and hoping you are okay, Shirlee! I trust Brenda would tell us if something was up, but still hope all is well.

listener said...

CNN today: "Bryan Pagliano, a former Clinton staffer who helped set up her private email server, has accepted an immunity offer from the FBI and the Justice Department to provide an interview to investigators."


If everything is lily white, why does anyone need immunity?

listener said...

WOW!! Well, check out this article on the subject of HRC's emails. Apparently it is now officially a criminal investigation.

http://m.huffpost.com/us/entry/obamas-justice-department-gave-bernie-sanders-presidency_b_9372012.html

whitznd said...

Dang, I wrote a long post and posted it, but it's not here. :o(. And now, I don't have the time to rewrite it.

Oh well. the last line was sending love to my bloggie family!

puddle said...

Word from Mz Shirlee!!

Hi, Puddle....I am fine...just having internet problems and can't
seem to get a post to stick..so hoping this will do until Brenda
arrives this afternoon.


YAY!!!!

I just spent 24 hours with a good, strong, clear dial tone, and a service that would dial nobody! you must dial a zero before; the number as dialed; please hang up and try later. . . .

Shirlee Murphy said...

Hey all. Shirlee is good. I Just forgot to sign her in on her new iPad. I'm fixing it up now and she'll be ready to go! Hope everyone is doing well! Don't let the Repubs drive you crazy!

puddle said...

ThanX, Brenda!! Take good care of her, eh?

listener said...

Thanks, Brenda!! ♥

listener said...

New Zealand, Ireland, Canada, a part of Norway, and Sweden have now all extended invitations to Americans, should that person be elected.

Shirlee Murphy said...

Thanks to Brenda for getting all working. We had a great dinner last evening.
Today they are off tracking down historical marker signs in NC, taking photos
and making their own record.

In the low fifties this afternoon, sunny, little wind...should get dressed and take
a walk OR I could stay inside with two new books..a Garrison Keillor novel and
The Map Thief...the true story of the man who went to major libraries around
the country and succeeded in stealing very rare maps from major collections.
I was still working when this happened and MSU map collections were put under
extra protection and checked and re-checked for any missing items.

Love to all......oh, and not to worry ..when Brenda goes out of town someone else
in the theater group knows and I have their numbers in my phone...which is always
within reach. Have a happy Saturday!

puddle said...

Just a thought: LESSONS LEARNED FROM HARRY POTTER MOVIES--Evil people have awful looking teeth.

puddle said...

Best line from the Chamber of Secrets: Exactly what is the function of a rubber duck?

Pat said...

Hi Friends,

Busy day here: I scrubbed the kitchen floor, swept the steps, did a load of laundry. As I get older, I am more and more capable of ignoring upkeep, but the floor was easy and fast, and of course, it's mud time, so it won't last long.

Shirlee, I'm glad for the goodness in your life: wonderful children, choices as to what to read and whether or not to walk, and a daughter who loves you so much.

Yes, Listener, the political situation is scary. I've been thinking that when a culture promotes money and material goods above everything else, when propaganda, lies, influence, lack of community, militarism, inequalities dominate, then we shouldn't be surprised when people reflect those values. At the retreats with Thich Nhat Hanh, it was emphasized that whatever we take into ourselves, we become. It's a little like eating spoiled food; there will be a reaction.

Still, I'm hopeful. We've had so many good things in our lives: love, friendships, opportunities, choices, resources, work that was satisfying and stimulating, and the list goes on. Hope, hope, hope that we will vote the best of ourselves by choosing a candidate who has integrity, values, experiences serving in worthwhile ways.

Take good care of yourselves

listener said...

I went to visit a friend here in Vermont yesterday. As I drove down her road I noted two permanent, year-road road signs that made me laugh out loud. They read: "Drifting Snow."


SO happy for Bernie's two big wins on Saturday! C'mon MAINE! Vote wisely, on Tuesday, Michigan! :-)

listener said...

Oops! Make that: "year-round road signs."

Shirlee Murphy said...

Thank you, all..I do have a wonderful family... Puddle, I guess I need to
pull down my Harry Potter books. I bought the whole series because I was
intriqued by the single mom author. Haven't re-read...it is lovely book-making,
Maybe should get the Netflix?

Partly sunny, low sixties here.

Love to all...take care..hope Bernie keeps doing well.
Looks as though even the Repubs are sick of Trump
and a little worried about what they have wrought!

listener said...

wOOt!

Kennebunk, Maine:

645 ballots cast:

387 (60%) for Sanders
258 (40%) for Clinton

puddle said...

Shirley, never read them, though my son has, lol! (Am therefore so glad for potter wiki. . . . ) I think the thing I most love is watching that little boy grow into a fine man, over and over and over. . . .

Second, sorta, picking my house, and wand, and. . . . For instance, I long ago declared myself a hobbit, whom I think are adverse to things with beaks and claws and fangs, so I think Hufflepuff would be a good house. As for a wand? I'm thinking witch hazel, with a giraffe hair core, and a polar bear tooth handle.

Amazon's prices on the set are dismal ($67), but I got mine at eBay for $20.

http://www.ebay.com/itm/like/161961970888?lpid=82&chn=ps&ul_noapp=true

As you are likely aware, I love re-watching. Always catch new things every time through.

puddle said...

Richard Harris, who played Dumbledore for the first two years, was persuaded to do so by his 11 year old granddaughter who told him she'd never speak to him again if he didn't. . . .

Shirlee Murphy said...

Well, that makes two hobbits in this small group! I have been reading,
re-reading and now listening to Tolkien for years. Always finding something
new. Brenda gave me several books about T. And the world of hobbits, etc
for Christmas ....and because I am now 4 ft. 7in. found a purple t-shirt
that proclaims. I AM NOT SHORT.......I AM A HOBBIT.

So, if we could ever get together again we should appear in our hobbit
related gear and order a great dish of 'taters and mushrooms!

Love to you and all. Happy Day! Looks to be lovely 60's weather
this week in GSO.

puddle said...

I was mid twenties when I declared hobbitism--seemed like 33 was a good year to come of age. . . . My best friend in high school's elder sister was an English Major, and had discovered Tolkien before he'd been published here. She ordered The Hobbit and The Ring from England. We were the Ultra Early Fan Club. Twas a wonderful secret. Felt some jealousy when the cult arrived. . . . My black jeep of a decade ago was named Shadowfax, but alas didn't live up to the name.

Pat said...

Good Morning,

Overcast here, rain predicted, and the sky is dull, gray, brooding.

I wasn't a hobbit, but we did name our home in Nederland, Lothlorian, and we had Pippin, Doc, Gandalf, and Shadow as pets. When David and I met on Mackinac Island in the summer of 1962, he had a copy of The Two Towers and I had a copy of The Fellowship of the Ring. I guess it was fate. I've read the series five times and finally gave it away this year. We have the movies, and I recently ordered the DVD version of The Hobbit for my son's birthday. Amazon is so back ordered that they haven't been able to give me a date for delivery.

My roommate in Ann Arbor told me about Tolkien and his works. She was a major in Linguistics and Medieval Studies. I think that's how I obtained a copy of The Fellowship. She had spent a year at Oxford.

What fun to reminisce!

Pat said...

I forgot, our first cat, a Siamese, was called Gollum. We loved him. David taught him to fetch.

puddle said...

“There are two novels that can change a bookish fourteen-year old’s life: The Lord of the Rings and Atlas Shrugged. One is a childish fantasy that often engenders a lifelong obsession with its unbelievable heroes, leading to an emotionally stunted, socially crippled adulthood, unable to deal with the real world. The other, of course, involves orcs."

listener said...

We’re feeling a little stress here tonight. As I've mentioned, after some layoffs at work, my husband Bill's job got nearly doubled. (Penny wise and pound foolish company!) So they told Bill not to worry as they'd have this other guy do part of his work. Well, guess which other guy had a stroke over the weekend? He's a decade younger than Bill, too. Apparently there is something about his heart that creates clots. That poor guy!
So Bill's work is doubled again. Bill got the job in the first place because the guy who had it before him died of a heart attack. It’s a good thing Bill has a good, strong heart!!!

listener said...

The Hobbit was assigned in English class our senior year of high school. So creative and complex and different! I liked the poetry and the camaraderie. I wasn't too fond of all the slogging across the plains, so I am grateful for the movies that shortened at least some of the slogging. ;-) We read aloud the Hobbit and the Trilogy at least twice in our home school days. They kids could all chant the poems together (my fave is "Chip the glasses and crack the plates…" :-) .) I loved how Arwyn was woven into the movie version. "What grace is given me, let it pass to him." Glorious!

I think I'm at least part Elf. I know that one of my children is pure Elf (hey, his friends actually set up a flat-Legolas in the trees where he and his wife were married!). Fleet of foot, super smart and quick witted, lightyears ahead of everyone else around him, and not afraid of a good, dangerous challenge. Ha! I have an Elven heart even if I have a Hobbit body! I sure love the architecture of the Elves!! And my eldest grand is named Lorien.

Don't forget "It comes in pints", Shirlee! :-)

listener said...

I hope you didn't miss this Good Dad story. Dad takes son to a baseball game during Spring Training in Florida, as his special birthday present on his 8th Birthday. Son takes a photo to text to Mom so she can see how excited he is to be there. While he is looking at the phone, the batter loses the grip on the bat and it goes flying right into the stands. Dad, who happens to be a firefighter, thrusts out his arm just in time to save his son from getting the bat slammed right into his face! The photographer for the team happens to get a fabulous photo of The Moment. And the rest is history. Dad got a bruise (he's had worse, he says) and son got a bump on the shoulder as the bat flew off Dad's wrist. He sure got the right Dad 8 years ago!

http://triblive.com/sports/pirates/10100857-74/cunningham-bat-landon

listener said...

I ♥ Vermont!

“In a stunning show of support, Bernie also won every single town in the state.”

http://digital.vpr.net/post/bernie-sanders-picks-3-more-vermont-superdelegates#stream/0

Pat said...

Hi friends,

A dreary day today, but lightening up a bit. We have a hobbit house in our subdivision, looks just like Frodo's house in the movie, even has a moss garden on top. It's enchanting. Every time we walk that way, I stop and admire it.

They are repairing our bridge to our access road. Traffic can go down every half hour and come up at the top of the hour. That's what the flagger told us yesterday, so I cancelled a lunch date with an old friend. We'll have to learn to time our travel since I don't want to wait an hour or a half hour or more. But, they are repairing it.

David remarked that Obama has turned the ship of state in a new direction. Now we have to continue the momentum. I wish there wasn't so much baggage with Hillary. Even if none of the accusations are true, distrust has been the consequence, and I'm not sure she can be elected if she is the candidate, and heaven help us if Trump is elected.

Well, take care. Have a nice night.

puddle said...

Sunny and very warm (76º). To be followed by two more, even warmer. Have to go fish out some summer clothes.

Spring is coming in less than two weeks!

listener said...

Interesting. CNN shows this:

☆ Projected winner

MICHIGAN
Dems with 12% of the vote counted:
sanders 51.9%
clinton 47.1%
updated 8:22 pm et, mar. 8, 2016
(Note: no projected winner)

MISSISSIPPI
Dems with 0% of the vote counted
clinton ☆ 0.0%
sanders 0.0%

And their giant headline is:
CLINTON WINS MISSISSIPPI

But the media isn't showing any bias, right? ;-)

listener said...

Oh Pat! I hope you can get a photo of that Hobbit House! Wow!!


I'm loving the warmer weather, too, puddle. While I cringe for the planet and the plants, if we have to have an early Spring this year, I'm ready!

puddle said...

First spider of spring, tonight!

listener said...

We had our first spider earlier today, too, puddle!

This one was a small tan spider inside the window on our front storm door. I prefer that introduction to the big black jumping kind! Ha!

listener said...

CNN is truly shameless. They called MS for HRC with 0% of the vote counted. They called MS for Trump with 49% of the vote counted. With 84% of the vote counted, and Bernie having been ahead continuously all night long, they still haven't called it for Bernie. They can't even bring themselves to say "Sanders is ahead in MI". Instead they say "A tight race in MI." Give me a break!

listener said...

In most of the 69 counties where Bernie is ahead, he is 10-30% ahead. In most of the 10 counties where Hillary is ahead, she is 1-3% ahead.
91% of the vote has been counted and CNN still hasn't called it.
http://www.cnn.com/election/primaries/states/mi/Dem

listener said...

FINALLY! CNN has called Michigan for Bernie!

With 96% of the vote in.

puddle said...

GO BERNIE!!!

puddle said...

Heh! Just ordered my grandson's birthday sweater, home delivered, *before* his birthday, gift wrapped and all! May be his first birthday present on time from me in his whole life! Whatta maze!

Shirlee Murphy said...

Well, wonder of wonders ...Bernie took Michigan...my home state.
They have had a lousy R. governor just letting that beautiful, but cold,
state go to rot. Hope the Michiganders carry through in the general.!

Some family sorrow in MI...my son's father in law is dying of cancer.
They are such good, good people ...very kind, happy etc. and my
daughter in law is the same.. Love them all.

Lovely weather here...went for a fairly long walk yesterday,

Love to all, stay well!

listener said...

{{{ ♥ Shirlee ♥ }}} So sad for your family to be losing a good dad-in-law!!

I had coffee with my near neighbor today, whose EMT husband was killed suddenly last Summer by a driver who crossed the median with purpose of suicide. She lived and he died at the scene. He had been on his way to the store for party supplies as his daughter's 9th birthday was three days hence. It was also supposed to be his 35th birthday. They are such wonderful neighbors…she and the three daughters ages 8, 6, and 4 at the time of the crash. Today I learned that she has a new guy in her life and I have to say he sounds like an excellent match for ALL of them. Death and Life are so close, so difficult, so palpable, so amazing.

= ♡ =

listener said...

addendum:

It would have been his 31st birthday. :-(

puddle said...

Wonder of a warm spring day!! And more light coming this weekend--daylight savings! Begins the part of the year I most like.

whitznd said...

So sorry for your family, Shirlee. But it's good to see you here.

Yay Bernie for taking MI! And he took the debate as well. People are getting tired of her sham tactics. She again accused Bernie of opposing the Auto Bail out bill when it was included in the TARP or bail out of Wall Street. This time he did a better job of defending it. Loved how at the end he got a standing ovation and then, for the rest of the broadcast, chanted Bernie Bernie Bernie! Made Hil a little nervous, I think.

What a kind man.

Love to my bloggie family.

listener said...

Bernie really rocked the debate last night, and for once CNN let me watch all of it! Wow! Even so, I turned it off after the closing remarks, at the start of the Standing-O, so I didn't know about the chanting. Thanks, Barb!

I was watching the blogging at CNN going on alongside the debate broadcast, and folks are getting faster at fact-checking! Seconds after Hillary accused Bernie of not voting for the Auto Bailout, a blogger posted the link to the Fact-Checker article that was posted the day after she said that last time! Ha! From there, people were fact-checking almost instantly. This is good!!!

We have the power, and Bernie knows it, and the young people of this nation also seem to know it. We've hit the knee of the curve!

listener said...

A short time ago, I heard and saw the first flock of returning geese, as they flew over my house. Geese!



WILD GEESE

You do not have to be good.
You do not have to walk on your knees
For a hundred miles through the desert, repenting.
You only have to let the soft animal of your body
love what it loves.
Tell me about your despair, yours, and I will tell you mine.
Meanwhile the world goes on.
Meanwhile the sun and the clear pebbles of the rain
are moving across the landscapes,
over the prairies and the deep trees,
the mountains and the rivers.
Meanwhile the wild geese, high in the clean blue air,
are heading home again.
Whoever you are, no matter how lonely,
the world offers itself to your imagination,
calls to you like the wild geese, harsh and exciting --
over and over announcing your place
in the family of things.

~ Mary Oliver

Shirlee Murphy said...

Thanks for your kind posts, folks. Thanks for the story of your neighbor,
Listener. Life is so unpredictable...

I too am looking forward to changing clocks forward!

puddle said...

Don't think I had a sense of just HOW big the Michigan win was. . . .



2016 Election 1:09 AM Mar 9, 2016
What The Stunning Bernie Sanders Win In Michigan Means

By Harry Enten

Bernie Sanders made folks like me eat a stack of humble pie on Tuesday night. He won the Michigan primary over Hillary Clinton, 50 percent to 48 percent, when not a single poll taken over the last month had Clinton leading by less than 5 percentage points. In fact, many had her lead at 20 percentage points or higher. Sanders’s win in Michigan was one of the greatest upsets in modern political history.

Both the FiveThirtyEight polls-plus and polls-only forecast gave Clinton a greater than 99 percent chance of winning. That’s because polling averages for primaries, while inexact, are usually not 25 percentage points off. Indeed, my colleague Nate Silver went back and found that only one primary, the 1984 Democratic primary in New Hampshire, was even on the same scale as this upset. In that contest, the polling average had Walter Mondale beating Gary Hart by 17 percentage points, but it was Hart who won, with slightly more than 9 percentage points over Mondale.

Indeed, my initial thought was to compare the Sanders upset with Clinton’s over Barack Obama in the 2008 New Hampshire Democratic primary, but that undersells what happened Tuesday night. I was in New Hampshire when Clinton won in 2008 and sat in stunned disbelief — Obama lost by about 3 percentage points, when the polling average had him ahead by 8 percentage points. In other words, tonight’s error was more than double what occurred eight years ago.


http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-the-stunning-bernie-sanders-win-in-michigan-means/

http://www.boomantribune.com/story/2016/3/8/235624/3920

puddle said...

New magic thread!!