Reposted from Daily Kos Elections by Steve Singiser
Most of the political oxygen today, at least on the polling front, has
been sucked up by that trio of CBS/Quinnipiac polls in the swing states
of Florida, Ohio, and Pennsylvania. And, sure, three fresh polls showing
Obama leading by 6-11 points in three absolutely pivotal states
certainly qualifies as big news.
The equally big news, however, is that those same CBS/Q polls also
had great news for Democrats eager to hang onto the U.S. Senate. Couple
them with some pretty decent polling on the House level, as well, and it
was a pretty darned good day to be a Democrat, at least on the
horserace/data front.
On to the numbers:
PRESIDENTIAL GENERAL ELECTION TRIAL HEATS:
On to the numbers:
PRESIDENTIAL GENERAL ELECTION TRIAL HEATS:
NATIONAL (Gallup Tracking): Obama d. Romney (47-45) NATIONAL (Rasmussen Tracking): Romney d. Obama (47-44)DOWNBALLOT POLLING:
NATIONAL (YouGov): Romney d. Obama (46-44)
CONNECTICUT (PPP): Obama d. Romney (51-43)
FLORIDA (CBS/Quinnipiac): Obama d. Romney (51-45)
OHIO (CBS/Quinnipiac): Obama d. Romney (50-44)
PENNSYLVANIA (Quinnipiac): Obama d. Romney (53-42)
AZ-01 (North Star Opinion Research for Paton): Ann Kirkpatrick (D) 46, Jonathan Paton (R) 43 AZ-02 (Greenberg Quinlan Rosner for Barber): Rep. Ron Barber (D) 53, Martha McSally (R) 40A few thoughts, as always, await you just past the jump ...
AZ-02—D (Greenberg Quinlan Rosner for Barber): Ron Barber 77, Martha McSally 13
CA-09 (Lake Research Partners for McNerney): Rep. Jerry McNerney (D) 49, Ricky Gill (R) 33
FL-SEN (CBS/Quinnipiac): Sen. Bill Nelson (D) 47, Connie Mack IV (R) 40
FL-SEN (PPP): Sen. Bill Nelson (D) 45, Connie Mack IV (R) 43; Nelson 45, Mike McCallister (R) 40; Nelson 46, Dave Weldon (R) 39
FL-SEN—R (PPP): Connie Mack IV 47, Dave Weldon 14, Mike McCallister 10, "Someone Else" 6
MI-SEN (Foster McCollum White/Baydoun): Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D) 53, Pete Hoekstra (R) 43; Stabenow 51, Clark Durant (R) 43
MI-SEN—R (Foster McCollum White/Baydoun): Pete Hoekstra 40, Clark Durant 24, "Another Candidate" 15
MO-SEN (Rasmussen): John Brunner (R) 49, Sen. Claire McCaskill (D) 43; Sarah Steelman (R) 49, McCaskill 43; Todd Akin (R) 47, McCaskill 44
MO-SEN—R (Internal poll, as reported by Dave Catanese): John Brunner 29, Todd Akin 27, Sarah Steelman 25
OH-SEN (CBS/Quinnipiac): Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) 51, Josh Mandel (R) 39
OH-16 (GBA Strategies for Sutton): Rep. Betty Sutton (D) 42, Rep. Jim Renacci (R) 40, Jeffrey Blevins (Lib) 12
PA-SEN (CBS/Quinnipiac): Sen. Bob Casey (D) 55, Tom Smith (R) 37
WI-SEN—R (PPP): Eric Hovde 28, Mark Neumann 25, Tommy Thompson 25, Jeff Fitzgerald 13
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45 comments:
Nice! Good to see that mostly Dems are in the leads. Would like to see Clair's numbers improve a bit though.
Howie's da man!
I would, too, lol! Howsumevah:
Rasmussen Reports - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rasmussen_Reports
In June 2012, Silver wrote that "Rasmussen Reports, which has had Republican-leaning results in the past, does so again this year.
In different polling, on a different subject: THIS did mah heart a good deal of good:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/rf/image_296w/WashingtonPost/Content/Blogs/post-partisan/Images/PEWGAY.jpg?uuid=pMDHiNs2EeG9H48rV95tlA
Found that after a triumphal post from my tea-headed sis in law that she an my brother stood in line for an hour and a half to support Chic-fil-a yesterday. Can hardly *believe* that anyone with my blood would agree. Up side: this was in Utah -- the lines should have been four hours long. . . .
So--excited about the news posts, Puddle I forgot to add my name, etc.
Looks like quite good progress for marriage equality. Change comes slowly--but things DO change!
Good Morning,
Thank you for all the poetry. Much appreciated.
How there can be any poll that puts Obama and Romney close is beyond comprehension, in my opinion.
Huckabee organized the Chic-a-fil appreciation. Too funny (and not funny) to get people to broadcast their bigotry. Now, where's the appreciation rally for the Ku Klux Klan?
Again, unbelievable.
Will drop in again later. Am working on editing.
Went to bed laffin' last night. The minute I turned the computer off, and windows made it's good bye "peep," puppy boy sleeping in front of the open door, got up and went up to bed. Didn't look at me, and was all the way up the stairs before I shut down the monitor and got up. What a Goobey! And SO SMAR!!
Wonder how much good the positive polling in PA will do?
http://www.balloon-juice.com/2012/08/01/governor-corbett-has-ample-opportunity-and-notice-to-head-off-this-disaster-he-does-nothing/
Thanks for the PA report, Puddle--need to save it until the morning--RA giving me fits tonight--but not so badly that I ca't leave this very interesting--to bookies--news. Larry McMurtry is selling off--by shelf-- a huge portion of his bookstore stock.
Not all--I think--and besides he has 28,000 volumes in his personal collection at his home in Archer City, TX--news from my Texas sister!!!
And off to bed--or at least lay the bod down!!!! Love you all.
Wishing you good and peaceful sleep, Shirlee!
Thanks, Puddle--I did have that-mostly. Expecting some message from my RA doc this AM--in the meantime--Dana and
Brenda will come bearing lunch today:)
Ah! What is better than a day with TWO daughters in it?
Not much--especially when they bring lunch and we can eat in the comfort of my living room looking across and down Elm St. GSO!!
Heh! This is SO much fun, lol!
http://tbogg.firedoglake.com/2012/08/03/harrys-game/
This is MIGHTY fun--gotta go back and read it again!
Great time with D&B--called for an order of food from the Irish pub--Brenda went over and picked it up. We proceeded to eat, talk, play with electronics and earrings all at once.
At this point I think if Romney is elected there will have been massive voter fraud/payoffs--whatever they can stoop to.
Well, there WILL be massive voter repression, for sure. But then that's old. Hope some one or two get jail time in PA, at the least. At the best, the law will be voided.
Does sound like a really *lovely* afternoon, Shirlee.
Yesterday was a banner day: I managed to actually stay on line for 12 hours! Till earthlink kicked me off. First time evah with Clementine.
Finally out of water in the stock tank (still have a day or two's worth in the kitchen waterkeeper. So yesterday, went cross road, and dragged back the hose. Today, laid it out, and too short by about fifteen feet. So went back across the road and found the other half (that the boy chewed through), and brought that back. The river's receded about 10 more feet from the house, but even if it hadn't, that hose would have been too short. At any rate, all's I have to do tomorrow is haul the pump and electrical wire out to the bank, insert the intake into the water, and *pray*. . . . The praying part is important for me (not for my kid).
Puddle, had you always wanted to be a homesteader--even in the past? You seem so natural at it. It amazes me.
And now Good Night all. Happy Dreams.
Good Morning,
A busy day yesterday, lots of errands. Going to town is tedious, but we listened to Johnny Cash. What a folk poet he is. Hearing him sing "A Boy Named Sue" had us laughing outloud. He uses rhyme, rhythm, cultural stereotypes, humor, and surprise. So many of his songs are poetry.
Listener, you said something in the last thread that I have been thinking about for at least two days. Thank you. Often I'll read something that sticks in my mind, and I've forgotten where it came from. But, luckily, I found your words. Here they are:
"Whatever we can do for others does make a difference."
It's so true and we often never know what a difference we made. But I love what Martin Smith once said while leading a retreat in Massachusetts. He used Rilke's poem "And You Inherit the Green" to suggest that God is our heir, inheriting all that we create and all that we do, to enjoy with us for all eternity, saying "Do you remember that time you did this or that" and mulling it over with us just for the joy of it. It's a nice way to think of our unsung acts of kindness and seemingly senseless beauty."
The idea that God inherits our legacies intrigues me. I'll keep thinking about it.
This summer has been the "awfullest" I can remember with fires, heat, few wildfires, mosquitoes, little rain. Our meadow is week full. The sneaky Canadian thistles that I pull up from their roots were hiding among the wooly mullein, lamb's breath, burdock, and mustard.
I had pulled them up earlier this year, and found them hiding among the dense weeds. Tell me plants are sentient!
Anyway, have a good day, folks.
Happy 51st Birthday President Obama, and thank you for serving us. I can't imagine a worse job than the one you have, and I'm grateful for your ethics, your character, your intelligence, and your commitment.
corrections: week should read weed, and few wildfires should read few wildflowers. ERG.
Ah, Pat! Thinking wildfires would be a natural error after this summer!
Any time I stop to think about it, I'm stunned, and have been stunned for 17 years now, how *few* mosquitoes I have here. I have two marshes and a river within spitting distance. And in that time, I've had two, maybe three mosquito bites. We poison nothing here. . . . I remember reading a while back that if you poison your bugs, you *create* a problem, because prey bugs (which in the bug world, mosquitoes are) produce huge sets of off spring (to allow for most of them being devoured), while predator bugs, animals that prey on prey bugs, don't have the same numbers (for fear of out running the dinner menu?). Result, is the prey bugs: ticks, mosquitoes, etc. bounce back faster than what eats 'em. I don't have a town/county council that's interested in any kind of spraying, so nature's doing her thang quite well. This has been the first time in my life I've actually lived anywhere where there wasn't regular spraying going on. . . .
Shirlee, I don't think specifically so. So it's always kinda been there in my background. I've had some powerful women in my family tree. The one that impressed me most when I was little was a great-aunt who pulled a handcart, across the plains when she was fourteen. Also tended a little sister on the journey. Later, in compiling histories, I have a couple of greats grandmothers (one from each side) who shooed Indian braves out of their kitchens, lol! One with a frying pan. Never looked for any such excitement, but sort of felt I'd somehow come by excellent genes, grin. My dad also kept many of the farming skills he'd grown up with -- hunting (for a long time), gardening, saving (we had a root cellar dug under the kitchen window); one summer we raised ducks to freeze. And for years, he kept a cow on the back lot of his semi-trailer build/repair business. Morning milk for for butter, cottage cheese, curds; evening milk was for drinking. For me, the *conscious* turning point was when I moved to Cazadero. At the time, it was simply because I could afford it. Took me about three days to realize that *this* was how I'd always wanted to live, I just hadn't known it. . . . Six months later, I was looking in WV.
Thank you, Puddle for
your history! Genes and role models--and then you continue --and do it your unique way!
Really can't wait to meet you!!!!
Hi Puddle,
Good stories of your "pioneer ancestors". There is something very appealing to live more simply, more connected to the ground, the water, the sky, the life around us. There's a quiet in the land that can't be equaled in a sound proofed city dwelling. And, just to walk outside feels like a healing coming from the air, from walking, from seeing.
In our subdivision, we have people who live off the grid farther up Storm Mountain. They have solar and wind, though generators can be noisy. Also, people on scooters and ATVs come up to drive the roads. Then there are the target shooters and paint ball game players.
I think that National Forest ought to be off limits mostly to ATVs, shooters, and other kinds of recreation. Designating some places for that would be okay, but if I lived up on Storm Mountain, I'd be a crazy lady, furious with the recreationists who think the National Forest is their fairgrounds, their play areas.
When as a people will we accept that we can't have and do everything we want to because there are other values involved? One member of our community said plaintively, "I thought that we lived up here to do anything we want to do."
My friend who died recently wants her Celebration of Life remembrance to end with the Quaker hymn, "'Tis a gift to be simple and be free."
Pat ~ I keep thinking about that idear too.
It was part of a larger retreat theme Martin Smith offered, called "Co-Creators with God" in which Smith explained the theology behind the concept.
HIGHLY Recommended (and out of print. You can get it here:
http://www.ebay.com/itm/Martin-Smith-Co-Creators-God-Cowley-Retreat-TAPE-/200604812653
HIGHLY Recommended (and out of print. You can get it here) . . .
http://www.ebay.com/itm/Martin-Smith-Co-Creators-God-Cowley-Retreat-TAPE-/200604812653
Thank you, Listener. I"ll check it out.
Pat--that is a lovely hymn and applicable to many situations.
But, I wonder if you meant Shakers? I have visited and stayed at the restored Shaker Community at Pleasant Hill, KY--and they certainly claim it--written by Elder Joseph Brackett 1848.
If you ever travel that way I truly suggest a stay. A lovely Inn with ultimately clean rooms, good, simple food, and at some point during the week at least one amazing performance of their music. Add to that the very peaceful surroundings and for me my stays have always been perhaps the most spiritual experiences I have ever had.
Don't mean to be picky but I love the Shaker culture without really understanding their fatal and dooming division of the sexes. In many ways they were ahead of the cultural curve--equality for women and for the community in KY and the one or maybe two in OH they bought slaves during the Civil War with the intent of immediately freeing them.
Thanks for reminding me of their music!
Shirlee, you are correct that "Simple Gifts" is a Shaker tune. My family has sung it for years around the dinner table, holding hands. We have three or four that we sing, as grace. Sometimes, for an informal grace we just say "Go God Go!" or the short version a beloved priest once taught us, which is "Yay, God!" LOL!
PS: Not that we sing three or four at one meal! Ha! That's just what we have to choose one from. Among the others are "Now Thank We All Our God" and one we've used since before "Father" went out of fashion: "Father, We Thank Thee For the Night..." which has remained on our list because of the way the kids used to sing it in their middle years.
The original:
Father, we thank thee for the night,
and for the pleasant morning light;
for rest and food and loving care,
and all that makes the world so fair.
Help us to do the things we should,
and be to others kind and good;
May all we do, in work or play,
be done with love and strength this day.
Words: Rebecca Weston, ca. 1890
Music: Maryton, Winscott, Wainwright
The kids' version:
Father, we thank thee for the night,
and for the pleasant morning light;
for rest and food and loving care,
and all that makes the world so fair.
Help us to do the things we should,
and be to others kinda good;
May all we do, in work or play,
be done with love and strength this day.
;-)
Hi, Listener--I love your family's idea of informal graces--it is the spirit that counts!!!
Gift is indeed Shaker. But it is included in the Friends song book, as is The Lord of the Dance, which uses the same music. I'm not fond of all the lyrics, but love the beginning:
Lord Of The Dance
Sydney Carter
I danced in the morning when the world was young
I danced in the moon and the stars and the sun
I came down from heaven and I danced on the earth
At Bethlehem I had my birth
Dance, dance, wherever you may be
I am the lord of the dance, said he
And I lead you all, wherever you may be
And I lead you all in the dance, said he
Also in the song book, lol! is Jemimah was a Bullfrog. . . .
Thank you both for correcting me. You are offering a service with yoru acuity and honesty. I appreciate it. I don't know why I associated it with Quakers, but I did.
Keep up the good work.
In Samoa we had quiet time, called Sa. Families prayed and sang. It occurred for about a half hour every day at 5 pm.
I'll say good night. Mind and fingers scrambled, it seems. Nice day here though, about 75 degrees F. It's definitely a cold snap.
Well, glad you are here and thanks to Jo for providing this. : )
I am amazed at the range of interests this small group has--homesteading,writing, editing, books, poetry, music, publishing, pets and for R&D in med we have Denise and Jo is our enabler.
Love you all--good night now
I SO like this!!
http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2012/08/04/michael-tomasky-on-the-possible-coming-obama-landslide.html
Ho-ho-ho!!! Thanks Puddle--this is wonderful. Let's hope Mr. Blunderbuss keeps on doing his high and mighty slip-shod act!
Nope --not in bed yet--feeling much better tonight--getting back to my regular up at night
schedule.
Fine cool August morning! With biggol storms etc on the way, so's best get crackin'!
If we GET those predicted flash floods, I won't be able to pump water for several days (mud), so time to quit procrastinating, eh?
Good Morning, Bloggies
and Happy Birthday to Mr. Wendell Berry!!!
We know you "will never own a computer" but now my friend, with the internet and YouTube your wise words and thoughts are more available to a larger
audience--nothing but good,eh?
Have a lovely day--
Houston, we have a go! -- Water is flowing into the stock tank as I write. Took a lot more than I thought it would -- da lady's getting rickety, lol! Used to be, I could work for an hour, take a ten minute break and resume. This morning, it was a half hour, and a fifteen minute break. Whew! The half hour included hauling the hose out and the electrical line along with it, and pulling weeds from the path. . . . HATE putting my feet down, especially on a rocky beach, when I can't see where they'll BE. . . . After the break, took the pump, hose, and filler apparatus, along with a pillowcase to put the filler in (not wanting to suck that moss into the tank, lol! I'm glad it's there, in the river though: filters, cleans and oxygenates the water.
Now, I can zone out for an hour or two while the tank fills, and then reverse the process. . . (except the weeding, of course).
The DID remove the flood warning, but it's still just a county away, so. . . .
Shirlee, I've always found that Dean collected a truly remarkable group of talent and energy around him. And an amazingly high percentage of DO-ERS. . . . One of the things Tracy (in Hell's Kitchen)(DFA-NYC) said about Edwin was that he ALWAYS showed up when he said he would. Any organizer will tell ya: those people are GOLD. . . .
Dang!! Checked the feed, and it was just dribbling. . . . Checked the pump, and it was protesting. Unplugged it, will let it cool, and see what happens. I hope that works, because I haven't a single clew as to how to check the brushes. . . .
Well, FAIL. Got it plugged in again, and same-same. So brought it back in. Flood warnings are gone, but are still looking at thunderstorms. Got about a quarter of a tank, which is better than a kick in the butt, but. . . . I'm not willing to wreck a $200 pump when I don't know what I'm doing. Makes me dream of a water ram, though, lol!
http://www.theramcompany.com/
http://science.howstuffworks.com/transport/engines-equipment/question318.htm
There is something about Howard's personality that was/is exuberant--and totally accepting--
which frees people to do their best.
Just my take. Sure hope your water problem can be solved
soon!!!!!!!
Ah--just reading about the shooting in the Sikh Temple in Wisconsin. When are we ever going to get a remaining and stubborn portion of our country out of the
"I must have a gun mind-set?"
Republican's up to their nasty tricks in Michigan-Speaker of the House under investigation for illegally coercing a Dem House member to switch to Repub--
Mi--was my home state--it has been sad to see it go through a series of nasty pols and down the tubes--Although Detroit the City of my childhood and many good memories seems to be climbing back up slowly, but surely!!!
Good night all--and good water wishes for Puddle.
We got over two inches of rain yesterday afternoon and overnight! Got an anxious inquiry this morning from Nancy as to the state of the river/bridge. Nada. Maybe an inch or two higher, and a bit jade, but not remotely flood.
Trip to town/doc this (late) morning. Just to "read" the bloodwork.
Lay you odds that the moron with the gun thought those poor Sikhs were Muslims. The combo of ignorance, hate, and guns is horrific. Am put to mind of all the hate of outsiders that we've had for long -- Irish, Chinese, Hungarians, Italians. My brother Clark, the SSman, used to say that one nut with a gun produced a rash of wannabe krezzies. My bet is that Aurora has produced truckloads of threats, plots, plans from the disordered. . . Tragic, all of it. . . .
Hurray for the rain, Puddle--hope it is enough--for now.
Brenda took a bit of time from work today and drove me up Elm St. to tongue and mouth doc. Progressing well, return in two months.
He is funny--seems really to feel in competition with MD Anderson in Houston
where all my previous tongue scrapes, cuts and gouges were done.
Egos they DO have!!!
We got a bit more rain this afternoon, just as I got back from town. Got soaked bringing in just one bag. Turns out it was an additional 1/3 inch. Took a nap a four, and the river was right down low. Woke up, and it was at bridge level! And looking at the flattened grasses/flowers, had been *over* the bridge. AND, there a medium size log lodged at the end of the bridge, about half way across. . . So Highland County evidently got hammered. (The post office there is in Headwaters. . . .) It's happened before a few times, when it's been sunny here, and the river suddenly starts to rise. . . .
Glad your water level went up, Puddle:)
So--maybe all works out?? Hope so. Getting some lightening and thunder here now--so maybe we will have some flooded streets--because of the hills, ravines and many little streams that often happens in GSO--
Good night all--for now--need food, meds and some listening time to another audio book-- "Franklin, France and the Birth of America."
New Thread!!
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